Because I monitor (and sometimes participate) in conspiracy talk, I’ve probably looked into mass shootings more than most.

Apart from school shootings by students of that school, there isn’t really a pattern in who the targets are. In recent times it has been cinema-goers, 6-year-olds, gays, Jews, Mexicans, Muslims, music-lovers and so on. I think it is fair to say that looking at who is being targeted won’t be the answer.

That also means non blaming Trump. Yes, he might be the reason that the latest madman targeted Mexicans. While Trump is unlikely to have created such hatred in someone, he certainly could have legitimised it.

There are definite commonalities that should be looked at:

Semi-automatic weapons. Without a doubt these cause the numbers of casualties to be very high, very quickly. And there are no legitimate needs for Americans to own such weapons. Banning them will definitely reduce the numbers of dead and injured. It won’t stop many of these shootings, as people will just use less efficient weapons.

Mental illness. These days mental illness pretty much covers any not-normal activities. So whether they are schizophrenics or not, they are still ill. Anyone who thinks killing 50 people is justifiable, will find an excuse to do it. If it isn’t Trumps anti-immigrant rhetoric, and it will something else, like work colleagues (the traditional “going postal”.

Police response. Definitely the swifter responses save more lives.

Gun free zones. Some killers are deliberately selecting locations where armed civilians are less likely to intervene.

Happening more and more. It is possible that the publicity of the killings makes the next ones more likely, as the idea has more opportunity to become a fixation in some minds. While this is why suicides of non-famous people doesn’t make the news, we can’t stop the reporting of these crimes.

Fame / platform. There is an alarming trend towards the offenders accepting arrest without a shootout or suicide. They seem to want to bask in the what they have done.

Not new. While they are on the rise, these killings are not a new thing. Which means they cannot solely be blamed on any recent changes in society. And it also means that no single measure will end these acts any time soon. We can only lessen the frequency and damage.

White privileged males. The #1 commonality is the the culprits are white, disgruntled males. It is clear that these are people who grew up to believe their life would be better than it is. We don’t see an immigrant woman working three jobs shooting random strangers. She doesn’t have unrealistic expectations of what her life should be.

I have a feeling that they are mostly not in relationships, not happily employed, not raising children, and not well off. Such people will always exist. The issue is that they feel the deserve better. The “incels” are the public face of such people.

Although we have been conditioned to believe that non-white Americans are not improving their socio-economic status, I think they are perceived to be*, and the “incels” are noticing. They are seeing a bigger racial mix in entertainment, in sport, at work. They are sensing that the white privilege is disappearing. Primarily popular music has become more black (see below, they are dominating the Billboard Top 10), and we all know that rappers love to flaunt wealth and women in their videos.

And I can’t think of many countries where this change is so pronounced, where a racist past is appearing to give way to non-white prosperity. In South Africa the divide between whites and others is still immense. In the UK non-whites are improving socially and economically, but the UK doesn’t have such a racist past of slavery.

So, these are the reasons IMO, all partial factors, none the only factor:

• Social media – spreading of hate messages, the ability to broadcast your thoughts, and the amplification of your beliefs through platforms feeding you more of the same
• Weapon access
• Historic slavery
• Rap videos – a direct response to slavery, showing they have overcome disadvantages
• Populist politics

Solutions:

• Removal of war weapons from citizens
• Less segregation, more integration. American is still a country divided by wealth, race, politics and religion. It is harder to hate those who you spend time with
• More love. Ideally get girlfriends for “incels”. Volunteers?

Conclusion: Incels with access to powerful weapons, brought up to believe they deserve better, are sore losers reacting to the “success” they see in rap videos, powered by the feedback loops in mass and social media.

* except for education, nothing has improved for African Americans in the last 50 years.