Assessing Relative Risk

Every time I step out the door, I am taking a risk. Terrorists, muggers, car crashes, lightning, breathing in car fumes…

These are all knowns, that we have become used to, and we decide to get on with our lives regardless.

And along comes a pandemic, and we don’t know how risky living our every day life is.

At one extreme, I can stay at home for 6 months and definitely not catch coronavirus. I’ll lose my job of course, and go insane from boredom and loneliness. At the other extreme, I can ignore the news altogether, not change my life in the slightest, and take my chances. Just like smoking cigarettes, it could kill me, or I could get away with it.

The measured approach is the hard part. Our governments are struggling with the measured approach, and it is impossible to get perfect. At least some of the decisions will be made for us, whether we agree with them or not.

I have tickets to see Eagles of Death Metal next month. If the gig still happens – this band knows about risk! – then I have to decide whether to be in a crowd or people or forfeit my ticket and enjoyment. It is impossible for me to calculate the risk.

Should I share a joint with a friend, or kiss someone at a club?

Do I go to my library, which is the next suburb over – a suburb with 4 families in lockdown?

Do I order pizza, or religiously cook my own non-fresh food?

And, this is a big one, do I think I will survive it if I catch it, and there is nothing to worry about regarding my own health? Do I have that much hubris?

It’s times like these I wish I was living self-sufficient, miles away from society, and these questions do not apply.

I do feel majorly fortunate that I am not a health worker or delivery driver – they have much hard choices to make.

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