Robert Bast

Surprise Coronavirus Stories

There will be as many as there are shades and complexities of society. For example, how will “the crisis” affect heroin addicts? Circus performers? Astronauts?

This is a subculture I know intimately – I lived in backpacker hostel dorms for 5 years of my life.

Backpackers are typically, generally:

cocksure and invincible
living in cramped living conditions
socialise publicly to excess
live paycheck to paycheck

And many abuse drugs/alcohol and make poor life choices.

And that is great when you are young, crazy and away from the scrutiny of your family and community.

This is the perfect storm for spreading disease in a pandemic, right up there with the slums of the poorest countries.

Don’t be surprised if an outbreak epicentre, in Australia, is a backpacker hostel. Prime candidates are young British, Irish or Israeli men.

Avoid them like the plague.

Assessing Relative Risk

Every time I step out the door, I am taking a risk. Terrorists, muggers, car crashes, lightning, breathing in car fumes…

These are all knowns, that we have become used to, and we decide to get on with our lives regardless.

And along comes a pandemic, and we don’t know how risky living our every day life is.

At one extreme, I can stay at home for 6 months and definitely not catch coronavirus. I’ll lose my job of course, and go insane from boredom and loneliness. At the other extreme, I can ignore the news altogether, not change my life in the slightest, and take my chances. Just like smoking cigarettes, it could kill me, or I could get away with it.

The measured approach is the hard part. Our governments are struggling with the measured approach, and it is impossible to get perfect. At least some of the decisions will be made for us, whether we agree with them or not.

I have tickets to see Eagles of Death Metal next month. If the gig still happens – this band knows about risk! – then I have to decide whether to be in a crowd or people or forfeit my ticket and enjoyment. It is impossible for me to calculate the risk.

Should I share a joint with a friend, or kiss someone at a club?

Do I go to my library, which is the next suburb over – a suburb with 4 families in lockdown?

Do I order pizza, or religiously cook my own non-fresh food?

And, this is a big one, do I think I will survive it if I catch it, and there is nothing to worry about regarding my own health? Do I have that much hubris?

It’s times like these I wish I was living self-sufficient, miles away from society, and these questions do not apply.

I do feel majorly fortunate that I am not a health worker or delivery driver – they have much hard choices to make.

Vitamin D and other Coronavirus News

Vitamin D can halve the risk of acute respiratory infection

Keep in mind that Vitamin D is free, and works better, from sunshine. But if that is not possible for you, Vitamin D supplements could save your life. Also note that megadoses don’t improve anything…

Daily or weekly supplementation halved the risk of acute respiratory infection in people with the lowest baseline vitamin D levels, below 25 nanomoles per litre (nmol/L). However, people with higher baseline vitamin D levels also benefited, although the effect was more modest (10 per cent risk reduction). Overall, the reduction in risk of acute respiratory infection induced by vitamin D was on a par with the protective effect of injectable ‘flu vaccine against ‘flu-like illnesses.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/02/170216110002.htm

Children seem to have some kind of immunity, and there are few fatalities for those who do catch it

The virus appears to have evolved into two strains, with the more recent one being the most dangerous:

Researchers at Peking University’s School of Life Sciences and the Institut Pasteur of Shanghai, discovered the virus has evolved into two major lineages – dubbed ‘L’ and ‘S’ types.

The older ‘S-type’ appears to be milder and less infectious, while the ‘L-type’ which emerged later, spreads quickly and currently accounts for around 70 per cent of cases.

Genetic analysis of a man in the US who tested positive on January 21, also showed it is possible to be infected with both types.

More at The Telegraph and the academic paper is here

There are two major places that are relatively unaffected by COVID-19, yet have the potential to become the worst affected.

Africa has the poverty, crowded conditions, lack of services and in some places, cultural practices to be worried about. One of the reasons Ebola spread was a culture of having physical contact with loved ones who had died. Bill Gates said the potential impact in sub-Saharan Africa could be “very, very dramatic.”

India has been surprisingly successful in shutting down the spread of disease in the past. Read this article from the BBC and you get a feeling they are taking better and stronger action that the USA. Still, the crowding and lack of hygiene in places does make India particularly vulnerable

Q: Why Toilet Paper? A: All Of The Above

For the first time ever we can use the words “perfect storm” in relation to toilet paper. In many countries people are hoarding toilet tissue, and in some cases fighting over or stealing it. It is a great indicator of how some people will act if they are actually starving.

Everyone is asking why, and there are many theories. And I’m going to say they are all correct, and that is the reason.

Non-perishable. As a prepper I know it makes sense to hoard any non-perishable items I know will be used one day. 100 years ago everybody knew this, and deep down I guess we all still do these days.

Affordable.

Supply Chain. The pattern of purchasing toilet rolls is highly stable and predictable. And that means there is no incentive to keep extra supplies stored. Manufacturers have always produced this product at a steady rate. It doesn’t take much panic buying for shelves to be empty. This also means that shelves should be full again in a week or two. Overflowing even.

Sheeple. A good friend of mine, who is incredibly charitable and would give her last food to someone, stocked up on loo rolls. Her reason was purely because everyone else was. Total herd mentality and no other reason.

Empowerment. Toilet paper represents our control over something dirty, which we associate with disease. This isn’t crazy, as a major health advance was sewers and flushable toilets. So psychologists tell us this is a natural reaction to the coronavirus.

So there are 5 reasons why the shelves are empty, which means it isn’t a surprise at all, in retrospect.

Someone recently asked me why I hoard water. I said, because I can. You cannot predict every SHTF situation, so prepare in every direction you can, no need to qualify the hoarding of anything long-lasting that you will use anyway.

Three months of food and water is the minimum. There is every possibility this pandemic will have you choosing to be at home, even if you are not sick. Things can, and have, got ugly in unpredictable ways and this is just the beginning outside of China.

How to Profit from Coronavirus

Preppers tend to not have much money, so any way to profit from a disaster (without harming others, obviously) is a plus.

There are good and bad sides to all of these. I am not recommending them, just pointing out these are worth considering as examples of how to profit.

TRAVEL

Without a doubt, the cost of travelling has dropped dramatically. The best example is cruises (don’t, seriously), however flights and hotels are also significantly cheaper.

Places where the virus has struck hardest will be cheapest. Not only now but in the future. Wuhan will certainly have a subconscious negatively for many years to come, even if the virus has dissipated.

A great example is Air Asia X who are offering Malaysians a year of unlimited travel within Australia and Asia, for just over $100 USD. Get in quick Malaysians!

Local travel is certainly going to be cheaper to some degree.

If you were going to travel in the next year anyway, it is cheaper to book now. Book as far ahead as suits your needs and is still cheap.

This is especially suitable for people who are more adventurous and not around crowds so much. And people who are extra careful with hygiene and risk awareness.

WORK

You may be required to work from home. In the rush to do this, in many instances your bosses will be unable to judge how well you are performing, or how much work you actually do. That’s a good opportunity for a side gig.

INVESTMENT

This is where it gets interesting. I bought some gold a few months back, when it just felt nothing terrible had happened for a while.

Without a doubt, some stocks have been oversold in the last week. To decide which they are, think about how quickly they can rebound to normal activity. Travel is a good one, but the lingering fear is hard to estimate. Anything to do with goods production in China is excellent. Without a doubt the supply chain will resume, even if it means sacrificing health for economy. And defensive stocks are named for a good reason – you just need to time the end of the coronavirus fears well, as these shares will regain ground quickly. Food stocks are down 10% – I guarantee we will still eat.

Aside from products that revolve around isolation (Zoom, Netflix – up slightly while Wall Street plummeted, knitting patterns), most stocks that have risen rapidly won’t rise much more. A great example is manufacturers of hand sanitisers. Pretty soon we will have as much of that as we need.

Are Pyramids Made From Concrete?

Nobody has solved how the great pyramid of Giza was built. The most commonly accepted theory involves ramps. This is pretty much the only way the giant blocks of stone could have been lifted so high in those days. Unfortunately there is zero evidence that the ramps ever existed, and they would’ve used more materials that the pyramid itself.

My preferred theory is prominent enough to be detailed in Wikipedia, but not accepted by mainstream archaeologists. Limestone concrete. The concrete is created nearby, carried in liquid form up the pyramid, and poured into place. If true it is quite an easy way to build the great pyramid, and perhaps every pyramid. There is some evidence: un-natural bubbles of air found in a sample from a pyramid block.

However, in the last 14 years there hasn’t been much talk about the concrete hypothesis. Until now. At another ancient megalithic structure, on the other side of the world, concrete has been proven to be used. The study is very scientific and rigorous. Here are some quotes:

The study carried out on the monumental stones constituting the Pumapunku site in Tiahuanaco, Bolivia, proves that the stones are artificial and are not carved with unknown technology or by extraterrestrials. It is the human genius, intelligently exploiting the resources of its environment, who created these marvels.

…In November 2017, the scientists gathered samples taken in the red sandstone and andesite from the Pumapunku site. For the first time, these stones were analyzed under the electron microscope, this had never been done before! They discovered the artificial nature of the stones.

…this scientific discovery confirms local legends that say, “The stones were made with plant extracts able to soften the stone.”

Coronavirus: An Excuse to Get Healthy Now

Well before 2012, I said the Mayan doomsday was unlikely to actually happen, but it was a great excuse to prepare in general.

On the same theme, it is looking increasingly likely that the coronavirus will be free to roam the world, just like the flu and common cold. A new, deadly, much more contagious version of what we are used to.

One thing we do know is that, just like the flu, most people will recover and the dead are those who are most vulnerable. Elderly or otherwise less likely to cope physically. So, with some estimates being that 50% of us will catch it (which equals 70 million dead), we need to consider that avoidance is not practical, and that surviving the illness is the key. And that means making sure we have the physical fitness to survive. If the predictions do not play out, and you end up more physically fit – that is a win.

So:

stop smoking or drinking alcohol
no party drugs
cardiovascular health (at least walk more)
eat your veggies
get proper sleep, at night time
get sunshine = vitamin D
eat vitamin C, harmless but could help

Random Deselection

Every action should have an equal and opposite reaction.

So, perhaps, for every act of evolution, there is devolution.

If “selection” is random, including deselection as equally possible, is real, at least for one generation.

Survival of the fittest isn’t immediate. Essentially the unfit live for many years, never breed, and disappear from the gene pool.

For a species to evolve, more than half need to improve.

The deselected happen as much as the selected. They just cannot breed, there is no evolutionary advantage. No point multiplying negatives with negatives.

They are our loveable monsters, the worst of us in terms of evolution, but maybe the best, if we seek them out.

Coronavirus Dilution??

I am not an expert on pandemics, but I do feel I have a knack for patterns…

A new study published by The Lancet medical journal gives a snapshot of 99 cases of the new coronavirus observed at Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital from 1-20 January. It reveals:

Of the 99, 49 had been exposed to the seafood and animal market believed to be at the centre of the outbreak
Seventeen patients developed acute respiratory distress syndrome and 11 of them died of multiple organ failure; 31 of the 99 had been released from hospital by 25 January

So, in theory, 20% of people infected at the market died. And people who caught it from other people typically didn’t die. Beyond China we have found the only human-human transmission today, between a married couple.

It seems to me that the virus becomes less transmissible the more it spreads. It weakens.

This is a blessing.

The Difficulty of The Half-SHTF

Most preppers have some kind of absolute SHTF scenario in the back of their mind – nuclear war, super-volcano, pandemic or mega-earthquake. And they are ready to run away and hide from the world until others fix things up.

A minor disaster is much more likely.

A hurricane that leaves you without electricity for a month
A snow storm where you can’t leave your home
A flood

But there is another category, where you aren’t quite sure if you should run away or not, the half-SHTF:

A coronavirus that seems to be under control
A failing economy with riots, crime and unrest

How many people need to be infected before you put your plans to action? Many people will need to balance their response with the need to work, to pay the mortgage. Literally gambling that they won’t catch it, to survive economically.

How bad does civil unrest need to become? How do you measure it? Anecdotes? Personal experience? Do you retreat to your safe spot, or move overseas?

What about friends and family who choose to stay put?

Both scenarios will have a tipping point. With a pandemic, that is when people are so scared that they stop going to work in great numbers. When police and health workers stay at home. When infrastructure isn’t maintained. When supermarkets close.

With an economic disaster, at some point, police might become overwhelmed, which means an instant increase in disorder.

Both scenarios offer the possibility of lock-down, where you are unable to leave the city.

The answer is easy for some. Already live in a rural, safe location. Already have years of supplies. Have a job you can do online, and have a skill that is needed in the real world, as a backup. But that is rare and lucky. Most of us will have to make decisions.