Robert Bast

Over at the Washington Post they discuss how Andrew Yang’s proposal for a Universal Basic Income is being discussed again, in light of the pandemic.

As we have seen with COVID-19, some disasters can have economic components to them – when it safest for people to stay at home. In countries with a low focus on social security, that can be a major issue. It is hard to tell people to stay at home if they need food or money. It also increases the odds of looting or rebellion.

Even in countries with advanced economies, getting the required funds to people is having problems, with bureaucracy and the need for new systems to be created.

Having a UBI already in place means that nothing needs to be done, in terms of citizens having what they need to survive. The UBI may already be sufficient, if they are using the Unism model, or they simply to need to raise the amount each person receives.

UBIs also have an aspect that is rarely discussed – security. People want their governments to make them feel protected and safe, and receiving enough to get by, no matter what may happen, feels great.

This is in reference to an article on notorious (Russian-funded) Zero Hodge (misspelled on purpose).

It is called COVID-19 – Evidence Over Hysteria – you can find it, I won’t link to it.

Very early on in the article it says “When 13% of Americans believe they are currently infected with COVID-19 (mathematically impossible), full-on panic is blocking our ability to think clearly and determine how to deploy our resources to stop this virus.”

If you follow the link, the article starts by saying:

1 in 10 adults believe they have coronavirus right now

But in their actual results the question was Are you afraid you might have coronavirus right now? That’s a very different thing!

And the StudyFinds.org survey was conducted online via SurveyMonkey. (a free online survey tool). Sounds like sophisticated research!

Once you have evidence of unreliable reporting, you can judge the rest of it accordingly.

Now, most of the data is accurate, but there are two issues. They have solely chosen data that makes things look not so bad, like saying there is only a 1-5% chance you will catch it (as opposed to studies that say if drastic measures are not taken, most of us will catch it). And comparing it to the flu, yawn…

And they have misinterpreted it. They say being on the same curve as other countries is irrelevant, because the infections per capita is lower. That only becomes irrelevant once the curve flattens – which the US is far from – and if you don’t consider the rate of testing, in which the US is one of the worst.

Most scientists would see that America has a good chance of being the worst affected, both in total casualties and per capita.

Yet the author says it makes no sense to close any schools or businesses, and not ban public gatherings.

There are many, prominent conspiracy theorists out there, who are very good at joining the dots, and convince many. However, they are never self-critical and never acknowledge any flaws in their argument. And worse, they think everything is a conspiracy, and nothing happens naturally. Not even hurricanes and volcanoes. Not even rain.

Recently there was a 5G/coronavirus theory doing the rounds, because China is big on 5G, blah blah blah. No mention of how big 5G is in Iran, or how it is clearly spreading virally…

Now I am seeing in depth discussions of how it was caused by the USA to destroy their economic rival. Again, well-argued, but misses the obvious questions:

• Why wasn’t the USA more prepared for if/when it arrived on their shores? It is looking like the USA will suffer much more than China
• Why not just do something non-viral, like poisoning the water supplies?

And 6 weeks after it was published, there are some obvious problems:

This appears to be precisely the case with this new virus, in that all the infected persons are Chinese. News reports speak of infections appearing in Thailand or the US, but those (at least to date of writing) were all Chinese who had been to Wuhan. There have been no cases so far of infected Caucasians.

As with SARS, this new virus appears to be tightly-focused and race-specific to Chinese.

They also reference a lot of their info (although if you visit the links and read, they are often quoted out of context), and slip in ideas without a reference (did a carrier pigeon deliver the info?), like this one:

American bioscientists caught by the police inside of China doing illegal acts.

They throw in patents… hint: every wacky idea has been patented, doesn’t mean squat.

And, keep this in mind, conspiracy theorists never make outright claims, because they don’t wish to be quoted when they are proven wrong. Instead they ask lots of rhetorical questions, intermingled with “facts” and create the effect of a statement, without saying it.

There will be as many as there are shades and complexities of society. For example, how will “the crisis” affect heroin addicts? Circus performers? Astronauts?

This is a subculture I know intimately – I lived in backpacker hostel dorms for 5 years of my life.

Backpackers are typically, generally:

• cocksure and invincible
• living in cramped living conditions
• socialise publicly to excess
• live paycheck to paycheck

And many abuse drugs/alcohol and make poor life choices.

And that is great when you are young, crazy and away from the scrutiny of your family and community.

This is  the perfect storm for spreading disease in a pandemic, right up there with the slums of the poorest countries.

Don’t be surprised if an outbreak epicentre, in Australia, is a backpacker hostel. Prime candidates are young British, Irish or Israeli men.

Avoid them like the plague.

Every time I step out the door, I am taking a risk. Terrorists, muggers, car crashes, lightning, breathing in car fumes…

These are all knowns, that we have become used to, and we decide to get on with our lives regardless.

And along comes a pandemic, and we don’t know how risky living our every day life is.

At one extreme, I can stay at home for 6 months and definitely not catch coronavirus. I’ll lose my job of course, and go insane from boredom and loneliness. At the other extreme, I can ignore the news altogether, not change my life in the slightest, and take my chances. Just like smoking cigarettes, it could kill me, or I could get away with it.

The measured approach is the hard part. Our governments are struggling with the measured approach, and it is impossible to get perfect. At least some of the decisions will be made for us, whether we agree with them or not.

I have tickets to see Eagles of Death Metal next month. If the gig still happens – this band knows about risk! – then I have to decide whether to be in a crowd or people or forfeit my ticket and enjoyment. It is impossible for me to calculate the risk.

Should I share a joint with a friend, or kiss someone at a club?

Do I go to my library, which is the next suburb over – a suburb with 4 families in lockdown?

Do I order pizza, or religiously cook my own non-fresh food?

And, this is a big one, do I think I will survive it if I catch it, and there is nothing to worry about regarding my own health? Do I have that much hubris?

It’s times like these I wish I was living self-sufficient, miles away from society, and these questions do not apply.

I do feel majorly fortunate that I am not a health worker or delivery driver – they have much hard choices to make.

Vitamin D can halve the risk of acute respiratory infection

Keep in mind that Vitamin D is free, and works better, from sunshine. But if that is not possible for you, Vitamin D supplements could save your life. Also note that megadoses don’t improve anything…

Daily or weekly supplementation halved the risk of acute respiratory infection in people with the lowest baseline vitamin D levels, below 25 nanomoles per litre (nmol/L). However, people with higher baseline vitamin D levels also benefited, although the effect was more modest (10 per cent risk reduction). Overall, the reduction in risk of acute respiratory infection induced by vitamin D was on a par with the protective effect of injectable ‘flu vaccine against ‘flu-like illnesses.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/02/170216110002.htm

Children seem to have some kind of immunity, and there are few fatalities for those who do catch it

The virus appears to have evolved into two strains, with the more recent one being the most dangerous:

Researchers at Peking University’s School of Life Sciences and the Institut Pasteur of Shanghai, discovered the virus has evolved into two major lineages – dubbed ‘L’ and ‘S’ types.

The older ‘S-type’ appears to be milder and less infectious, while the ‘L-type’ which emerged later, spreads quickly and currently accounts for around 70 per cent of cases.

Genetic analysis of a man in the US who tested positive on January 21, also showed it is possible to be infected with both types.

More at The Telegraph and the academic paper is here

There are two major places that are relatively unaffected by COVID-19, yet have the potential to become the worst affected.

Africa has the poverty, crowded conditions, lack of services and in some places, cultural practices to be worried about. One of the reasons Ebola spread was a culture of having physical contact with loved ones who had died. Bill Gates said the potential impact in sub-Saharan Africa could be “very, very dramatic.”

India has been surprisingly successful in shutting down the spread of disease in the past. Read this article from the BBC and you get a feeling they are taking better and stronger action that the USA. Still, the crowding and lack of hygiene in places does make India particularly vulnerable