Robert Bast

Every time I step out the door, I am taking a risk. Terrorists, muggers, car crashes, lightning, breathing in car fumes…

These are all knowns, that we have become used to, and we decide to get on with our lives regardless.

And along comes a pandemic, and we don’t know how risky living our every day life is.

At one extreme, I can stay at home for 6 months and definitely not catch coronavirus. I’ll lose my job of course, and go insane from boredom and loneliness. At the other extreme, I can ignore the news altogether, not change my life in the slightest, and take my chances. Just like smoking cigarettes, it could kill me, or I could get away with it.

The measured approach is the hard part. Our governments are struggling with the measured approach, and it is impossible to get perfect. At least some of the decisions will be made for us, whether we agree with them or not.

I have tickets to see Eagles of Death Metal next month. If the gig still happens – this band knows about risk! – then I have to decide whether to be in a crowd or people or forfeit my ticket and enjoyment. It is impossible for me to calculate the risk.

Should I share a joint with a friend, or kiss someone at a club?

Do I go to my library, which is the next suburb over – a suburb with 4 families in lockdown?

Do I order pizza, or religiously cook my own non-fresh food?

And, this is a big one, do I think I will survive it if I catch it, and there is nothing to worry about regarding my own health? Do I have that much hubris?

It’s times like these I wish I was living self-sufficient, miles away from society, and these questions do not apply.

I do feel majorly fortunate that I am not a health worker or delivery driver – they have much hard choices to make.

Vitamin D can halve the risk of acute respiratory infection

Keep in mind that Vitamin D is free, and works better, from sunshine. But if that is not possible for you, Vitamin D supplements could save your life. Also note that megadoses don’t improve anything…

Daily or weekly supplementation halved the risk of acute respiratory infection in people with the lowest baseline vitamin D levels, below 25 nanomoles per litre (nmol/L). However, people with higher baseline vitamin D levels also benefited, although the effect was more modest (10 per cent risk reduction). Overall, the reduction in risk of acute respiratory infection induced by vitamin D was on a par with the protective effect of injectable ‘flu vaccine against ‘flu-like illnesses.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/02/170216110002.htm

Children seem to have some kind of immunity, and there are few fatalities for those who do catch it

The virus appears to have evolved into two strains, with the more recent one being the most dangerous:

Researchers at Peking University’s School of Life Sciences and the Institut Pasteur of Shanghai, discovered the virus has evolved into two major lineages – dubbed ‘L’ and ‘S’ types.

The older ‘S-type’ appears to be milder and less infectious, while the ‘L-type’ which emerged later, spreads quickly and currently accounts for around 70 per cent of cases.

Genetic analysis of a man in the US who tested positive on January 21, also showed it is possible to be infected with both types.

More at The Telegraph and the academic paper is here

There are two major places that are relatively unaffected by COVID-19, yet have the potential to become the worst affected.

Africa has the poverty, crowded conditions, lack of services and in some places, cultural practices to be worried about. One of the reasons Ebola spread was a culture of having physical contact with loved ones who had died. Bill Gates said the potential impact in sub-Saharan Africa could be “very, very dramatic.”

India has been surprisingly successful in shutting down the spread of disease in the past. Read this article from the BBC and you get a feeling they are taking better and stronger action that the USA. Still, the crowding and lack of hygiene in places does make India particularly vulnerable

Preppers tend to not have much money, so any way to profit from a disaster (without harming others, obviously) is a plus.

There are good and bad sides to all of these. I am not recommending them, just pointing out these are worth considering as examples of how to profit.

TRAVEL

Without a doubt, the cost of travelling has dropped dramatically. The best example is cruises (don’t, seriously), however flights and hotels are also significantly cheaper.

Places where the virus has struck hardest will be cheapest. Not only now but in the future. Wuhan will certainly have a subconscious negatively for many years to come, even if the virus has dissipated.

A great example is Air Asia X who are offering Malaysians a year of unlimited travel within Australia and Asia, for just over $100 USD. Get in quick Malaysians!

Local travel is certainly going to be cheaper to some degree.

If you were going to travel in the next year anyway, it is cheaper to book now. Book as far ahead as suits your needs and is still cheap.

This is especially suitable for people who are more adventurous and not around crowds so much. And people who are extra careful with hygiene and risk awareness.

WORK

You may be required to work from home. In the rush to do this, in many instances your bosses will be unable to judge how well you are performing, or how much work you actually do. That’s a good opportunity for a side gig.

INVESTMENT

This is where it gets interesting. I bought some gold a few months back, when it just felt nothing terrible had happened for a while.

Without a doubt, some stocks have been oversold in the last week. To decide which they are, think about how quickly they can rebound to normal activity. Travel is a good one, but the lingering fear is hard to estimate. Anything to do with goods production in China is excellent. Without a doubt the supply chain will resume, even if it means sacrificing health for economy. And defensive stocks are named for a good reason – you just need to time the end of the coronavirus fears well, as these shares will regain ground quickly. Food stocks are down 10% – I guarantee we will still eat.

Aside from products that revolve around isolation (Zoom, Netflix – up slightly while Wall Street plummeted, knitting patterns), most stocks that have risen rapidly won’t rise much more. A great example is manufacturers of hand sanitisers. Pretty soon we will have as much of that as we need.

Well before 2012, I said the Mayan doomsday was unlikely to actually happen, but it was a great excuse to prepare in general.

On the same theme, it is looking increasingly likely that the coronavirus will be free to roam the world, just like the flu and common cold. A new, deadly, much more contagious version of what we are used to.

One thing we do know is that, just like the flu, most people will recover and the dead are those who are most vulnerable. Elderly or otherwise less likely to cope physically. So, with some estimates being that 50% of us will catch it (which equals 70 million dead), we need to consider that avoidance is not practical, and that surviving the illness is the key. And that means making sure we have the physical fitness to survive. If the predictions do not play out, and you end up more physically fit – that is a win.

So:

• stop smoking or drinking alcohol
• no party drugs
• cardiovascular health (at least walk more)
• eat your veggies
• get proper sleep, at night time
• get sunshine = vitamin D
• eat vitamin C,  harmless but could help

I am not an expert on pandemics, but I do feel I have a knack for patterns…

A new study published by The Lancet medical journal gives a snapshot of 99 cases of the new coronavirus observed at Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital from 1-20 January. It reveals:

• Of the 99, 49 had been exposed to the seafood and animal market believed to be at the centre of the outbreak
• Seventeen patients developed acute respiratory distress syndrome and 11 of them died of multiple organ failure; 31 of the 99 had been released from hospital by 25 January

So, in theory, 20% of people infected at the market died. And people who caught it from other people typically didn’t die. Beyond China we have found the only human-human transmission today, between a married couple.

It seems to me that the virus becomes less transmissible the more it spreads. It weakens.

This is a blessing.

I’m keeping a close eye on this, personally, as this is one of the two most likely reasons for the SHTF, where survivalist tactics can mean life instead of death. The other is a solar super-storm.

Much is unknown about the virus, but the worst case scenario is quite easy to predict – and plan for.

• The number of cases in China will rapidly accelerate. This is because the virus appears to be must easier to spread that other viruses, and has a longer incubation period, up to 2-3 weeks. The latest estimates are each infected person will infect 2.6 others. That is like rabbits breeding…
• I can’t do the math, but 100K people infected and 5,000 dead in China is easily possible when it peaks. It could continue being a problem in China for many months
• China will become completely isolated from the rest of the world. Nobody in, and nobody out. It will start with a smaller country banning all Chinese flights, with bigger countries following suit a few days after
• Other countries will quarantine all January arrivals from China. If they don’t, it will spread.
• The random nature of the spread of a virus means that a handful of non-Asian cities will be hard hit and need to take drastic measures.
• Citizens of those cities might panic. Definitely expect food to disappear from supermarkets
• Many workers in those cities will decide to stay at home, until the threat disappears. This could have unexpected consequences, for industries where minimum staff numbers are needed. For example, public transport and health care.