Reading this article about the Usoi dam in Tajikistan is very sobering, and makes me feel blessed that I don’t live in that valley. Because the dam wasn’t mad-made, and the area is earthquake-prone, the risk is huge and disaster could occur tomorrow:
So how and why will this dam collapse? Take your pick. The most probable and obvious trigger is an earthquake — not unlike the massive temblor that created the dam and the lake in the first place. Were the dam to break, it could trigger another deadly landslide, but that wouldn’t be the worst of it. The lake’s water could cannon out in a 100-foot-high wave, coursing down established waterways and affecting as many as 5 million people, not only in Tajikistan but also in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
Yet nothing is being done. Tajikistan is a poor country, so that is one factor. But the main reason is that politicians do not spend money preventing disasters that might happen. Such precautions are expensive and they take a gamble that the disaster won’t happen on their watch. This is an issue everywhere. Hurricane Katrina is a famous example – they only took action after the disaster, the disaster they knew would happen some day.
The solution – a United Nations fund for disaster prevention. Perhaps billionaires could help, but it has the same lack of appeal that stops politicians. Eradicating malaria has measurable, reasonably immediate, high fiving results. This probably doesn’t. Dam didn’t collapse in earthquake? Well maybe it wasn’t going to any way?
I would like to see:
- Assessments of deforested land susceptible to land-slides
- Assessments of dams above large populations
- Rapid evacuation plans for cities near volcanoes
- Resettlement plans for potential disasters
- Local storage of food, water and shelter for emergencies
- Shelters built in hurricane / typhoon plagued locations
- Rapid military deployment to disaster zones
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