Most preppers have some kind of absolute SHTF scenario in the back of their mind – nuclear war, super-volcano, pandemic or mega-earthquake. And they are ready to run away and hide from the world until others fix things up.

A minor disaster is much more likely.

• A hurricane that leaves you without electricity for a month
• A snow storm where you can’t leave your home
• A flood

But there is another category, where you aren’t quite sure if you should run away or not, the half-SHTF:

• A coronavirus that seems to be under control
• A failing economy with riots, crime and unrest

How many people need to be infected before you put your plans to action? Many people will need to balance their response with the need to work, to pay the mortgage. Literally gambling that they won’t catch it, to survive economically.

How bad does civil unrest need to become? How do you measure it? Anecdotes? Personal experience? Do you retreat to your safe spot, or move overseas?

What about friends and family who choose to stay put?

Both scenarios will have a tipping point. With a pandemic, that is when people are so scared that they stop going to work in great numbers. When police and health workers stay at home. When infrastructure isn’t maintained. When supermarkets close.

With an economic disaster, at some point, police might become overwhelmed, which means an instant increase in disorder.

Both scenarios offer the possibility of lock-down, where you are unable to leave the city.

The answer is easy for some. Already live in a rural, safe location. Already have years of supplies. Have a job you can do online, and have a skill that is needed in the real world, as a backup. But that is rare and lucky. Most of us will have to make decisions.