The 2012 Comet Prediction was Accurate?

Is there a comet with a periodicy of 5000 years, due to return in 2012? Without any evidence from 3114BC it is impossible to say.
(my article in 2010)

When our very early ancestors were colonizing the Nile River Valley, 5,000 years ago at the dawn of civilization, it’s likely a brilliant comet appeared in the predawn sky. There is no direct evidence for this visitor because the start of recorded history was still a few centuries away.

The belief is that comet at least split into two pieces, which would not return to the Sun along the same orbital track until 5,000 years later. This forensic evidence can be linked to the great comet of 1844 that was nearly as bright as the brightest naked-eye star, Sirius. The second fragment, called comet ATLAS, appeared near the beginning of 2020.
NASA, 2021

My best guesses of what the ancient Mayans predicted for Dec 21, 2012, were a solar storm or a comet.

A solar storm could in theory have been predicted, from thousands of years of observation. Modern cultures have only been observing them for 150 years or so. However, knowing which direction the storm pointed – the Sun is rotating – I figure was impossible. As it happened, in 2012 a solar storm powerful enough to wipe out our electrical grids, occurred. Thankfully it was not directed at Earth, but it was quite rare.

Comets were always the better candidate:

  • Visible to the naked eye if big enough and close enough
  • The return can be calculated
  • Scary enough to form a religion around

To find the comet, my only option was to look at historical records. And they don’t go back to 3113 BC, the start of the ancient Mayan calendar. Clearly a comet spotted then, with a 5,000 year orbit, would be the best candidate, bookending the calendar. But such a period of orbit could only be back-calculated if observed in modern times.

Instead, I found a comet that could fit the 5 “ages” within the calendar – Caesar’s Comet:

The Long Count calendar was 5125 years long, which divided by 5 is 1025 years. 2050 years before 2012 was 39BC and in 44BC was Caesar’s Comet – It was perhaps the most famous comet of antiquity.

Accuracy, strangely, is not so important. Because travelling past the planets can cause gravitational disturbances, even NASA and their computers aren’t very accurate.

When Comet Hyakutake was discovered in 1996, astronomers determined that on the way in to our solar system it had an estimated periodicy of 17,000 years, yet after having its orbit disturbed by the largest planets, its new course meant it would take between 72,000 and 114,000 years to return.

When 23P/Brorsen-Metcalf was first discovered it was closest to Earth in August 1847. After completing its orbit it was back in that approximate spot in October 1919, and again in August 1989. The two observed periods were 72 years and 70 years. That’s roughly a 3% deviation between 2 orbits.

My bet is still with Comet Caesar. Not only could it still return soon and still be a remarkably accurate prediction…

…it might have zipped past us in 2012. Each time a comet grazes the sun, ice is burned off (that is literally what we see). After enough orbits, there is no ice left, and we cannot see it. They become a dark comet and some experts believe that half of the comets passing close by us are dark. We could literally be the path of one and not know until a few days before impact.

Donald Trump, 666, MAGA hats

(this is all legit. I have zero belief in the Bible, but all these together are uncanny)

And the Acronym of the Beast shall be MAGA and people will have it on their foreheads.

Recall that Trump retweeted someone calling him the King of Israel, and then he called himself “The Chosen One” https://www.washingtonpost.com/religion/2019/08/21/i-am-chosen-one-trump-again-plays-messianic-claims-he-embraces-king-israel-title/

But what about 666? Is it related to money via this $666M deficit under Trump’s reign?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-budget-idUSKBN1CP2FS

Or people with these 666 migrant kids separated from their parents:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/lawyers-can-t-find-parents-666-migrant-kids-higher-number-n1247144

Or his grandmother. middle name Christ, who died on 6/6/66, and her name literally means “vow for Christ to be trumped” <<<FREAKY
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Christ_Trump

And Trump Tower is 664 feet high – I bet you it is actually 666

And finally, how about this property, which was the highest price ever paid for an office building:
https://kushner.com/project/666-fifth-avenue/

Confederate Symbolism

I think (not an expert) that the banning of confederate flags is the first such thing since Germany banned anything Na-Zi.


The ability of a winning side to remove the negativity of the ideology of the defeated – the winners write history…


In this instance, I am all for it. As a general rule, no.


We have a very new culture where if you are part of the 48%, and not the 52%, you can be demonised, which is not how things should work.


The demonisation of racism, and the removal of people who advocated or profited from that, from public places (statues) is excellent.


I do fear that, if Trump gets back in, being a Democrat will become more than a preference, and akin to being a communist in the 1950s.

COVID-19 Could Get Worse

Scientists and the media know that there is no point unduly worrying people about something that may never happen. And that is a good call.

So survivalists, as always, have to think for themselves, and not expect help from anywhere when the SHTF.

COVID-19 is very new, and scientists have mostly questions and few answers. We don’t know anything that helps suffers for sure. We don’t know how many strains there are. We don’t know why kids are unaffected. And so on…

Viruses, by nature, mutate.

This new, different, weird virus might mutate. And that mutation might make it worse for us.

At this stage there is no evidence of worthwhile immunity from having it, and we cannot be sure a vaccine will be created.

So be smart, and be prepared for a new strain, much deadlier and/or virulent, at any time.

We have already struggled to cope with this one in most countries. And in many places restrictions are being removed far too early.

If it mutates into something worse, going to the supermarket might not be an option. Being cared for in a hospital might not be an option. Government help might not be available.

As always, a year or more worth of food and water should be on hand, and/or you should have somewhere away from the hordes where you can stay.

Australia’s Amazing Food Security

In my book I mention that Australia has substantially more arable land per person than any other country.  With 2.14 hectares per capita, it beats Kazakhstan with 1.45 and Canada with 1.25. Every other country is below 1.

71% of Australia’s food is exported, which means it produces 3x the food it needs. Food imports are few and not critical:

But not everything that Australians like to eat is produced here. So we import about 11% of the food and beverages we consume by value.

The imports are mainly processed products (including coffee beans, frozen vegetables, seafood products, and beverages), along with small amounts of out-of-season fresh food.
https://theconversation.com/dont-panic-australia-has-truly-excellent-food-security-136405

So, to reiterate, from Safe Spots where I say Australia is the safest place to be:

Australia has no nuclear power plants, and its exposure to earthquakes and volcanoes is minimal. It has a modern, western culture, and it is unlikely to have many neighbours turn up during a tragedy as it is surrounded by ocean. Population density is quite low, and it has substantially more arable land per person than any other country. Americans and Brits have no trouble fitting in.

Universal Basic Income

Over at the Washington Post they discuss how Andrew Yang’s proposal for a Universal Basic Income is being discussed again, in light of the pandemic.

As we have seen with COVID-19, some disasters can have economic components to them – when it safest for people to stay at home. In countries with a low focus on social security, that can be a major issue. It is hard to tell people to stay at home if they need food or money. It also increases the odds of looting or rebellion.

Even in countries with advanced economies, getting the required funds to people is having problems, with bureaucracy and the need for new systems to be created.

Having a UBI already in place means that nothing needs to be done, in terms of citizens having what they need to survive. The UBI may already be sufficient, if they are using the Unism model, or they simply to need to raise the amount each person receives.

UBIs also have an aspect that is rarely discussed – security. People want their governments to make them feel protected and safe, and receiving enough to get by, no matter what may happen, feels great.

Analysing Bad Reporting

This is in reference to an article on notorious (Russian-funded) Zero Hodge (misspelled on purpose).

It is called COVID-19 – Evidence Over Hysteria – you can find it, I won’t link to it.

Very early on in the article it says “When 13% of Americans believe they are currently infected with COVID-19 (mathematically impossible), full-on panic is blocking our ability to think clearly and determine how to deploy our resources to stop this virus.”

If you follow the link, the article starts by saying:

1 in 10 adults believe they have coronavirus right now

But in their actual results the question was Are you afraid you might have coronavirus right now? That’s a very different thing!

And the StudyFinds.org survey was conducted online via SurveyMonkey. (a free online survey tool). Sounds like sophisticated research!

Once you have evidence of unreliable reporting, you can judge the rest of it accordingly.

Now, most of the data is accurate, but there are two issues. They have solely chosen data that makes things look not so bad, like saying there is only a 1-5% chance you will catch it (as opposed to studies that say if drastic measures are not taken, most of us will catch it). And comparing it to the flu, yawn…

And they have misinterpreted it. They say being on the same curve as other countries is irrelevant, because the infections per capita is lower. That only becomes irrelevant once the curve flattens – which the US is far from – and if you don’t consider the rate of testing, in which the US is one of the worst.

Most scientists would see that America has a good chance of being the worst affected, both in total casualties and per capita.

Yet the author says it makes no sense to close any schools or businesses, and not ban public gatherings.

 

 

The Positives

Yes, this is health crisis, but because of our capitalist bent, it is also an economic crisis, in which the damage could be much more – if you could put a price on a human life.

Seagulls, faced with beaches empty of humans, might evert to getting their food from the sea, and stop ruining our waterfronts with their unattractive behaviour.

Obviously less consumption is better for the planet.

When we are forced to prioritise our spending, we might wake up to what we have been stupidly paying for:

  • Reiki
  • X of the Month Clubs
  • Fake nails and eyelashes
  • Smoothies
  • Luxury brands
  • Vitamins (except they might seem more useful during the crisis)

We might, in theory, lose a lot of bad habits and become more austere. Which isn’t good for a economic recovery that is based on GDP.

 

Beware of the Double Whammy

Just because we are all suffering from the coronavirus crisis, that does not mean that the potential for other disasters have been put on hold. If any of these were to happen in the next few months, tragedy could be exponentially worse.

Volcanoes – won’t make airlines suffer any more than they are now, but a super-volcanic eruption would mean years of “nuclear winter” and reduced food production. Imagine a lower supply of food combined with the panic buying of today. The last such winter, people were so starving they killed other people to get food. Such an eruption would have no warning.

Massive solar storm – we (in advanced countries) cannot function without the electrical grid, and the Internet. A solar storm has the potential to wipe out both and we would have 1-2 days warning at best. Imagine social isolation combined with no electricity.

War – I typically never discuss war because we are rapidly trending away from it. If the armed forces of a country were hit hard by the virus, and a neighbouring country found out, invasion is a possibility.

Another virus – viruses don’t wait in line. Pandemics are so rare that they are years or decades apart. But that doesn’t mean we can’t have two at once.

Civil war – only happens when enough of the citizens are pissed off and/or listen to a charismatic leader. It his age of fake news and anti-vaxxers., don’t be surprised if a country has an outbreak of violence from stupid people who listen to a manipulative liar.

Hackers – will be rubbing their hands with glee, due to so many people working from home and not necessarily securely

Malicious Individuals – it wasn’t too long ago Australia had someone putting needles in strawberries. Thieves might take advantage of distracted police and empty businesses. Are security guards still working?

And beware the Far Right looking to make something out of this.

People are already sombre and depressed. If we were to get a double whammy, mental health could decline dangerously.

But on the plus side, we have over 1,000 episodes of Joe Rogan’s show we can watch on YouTube.

 

 

Coronavirus Conspiracies

There are many, prominent conspiracy theorists out there, who are very good at joining the dots, and convince many. However, they are never self-critical and never acknowledge any flaws in their argument. And worse, they think everything is a conspiracy, and nothing happens naturally. Not even hurricanes and volcanoes. Not even rain.

Recently there was a 5G/coronavirus theory doing the rounds, because China is big on 5G, blah blah blah. No mention of how big 5G is in Iran, or how it is clearly spreading virally…

Now I am seeing in depth discussions of how it was caused by the USA to destroy their economic rival. Again, well-argued, but misses the obvious questions:

  • Why wasn’t the USA more prepared for if/when it arrived on their shores? It is looking like the USA will suffer much more than China
  • Why not just do something non-viral, like poisoning the water supplies?

And 6 weeks after it was published, there are some obvious problems:

This appears to be precisely the case with this new virus, in that all the infected persons are Chinese. News reports speak of infections appearing in Thailand or the US, but those (at least to date of writing) were all Chinese who had been to Wuhan. There have been no cases so far of infected Caucasians.

As with SARS, this new virus appears to be tightly-focused and race-specific to Chinese.

They also reference a lot of their info (although if you visit the links and read, they are often quoted out of context), and slip in ideas without a reference (did a carrier pigeon deliver the info?), like this one:

American bioscientists caught by the police inside of China doing illegal acts.

They throw in patents… hint: every wacky idea has been patented, doesn’t mean squat.

And, keep this in mind, conspiracy theorists never make outright claims, because they don’t wish to be quoted when they are proven wrong. Instead they ask lots of rhetorical questions, intermingled with “facts” and create the effect of a statement, without saying it.