I am not an expert on pandemics, but I do feel I have a knack for patterns…

A new study published by The Lancet medical journal gives a snapshot of 99 cases of the new coronavirus observed at Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital from 1-20 January. It reveals:

• Of the 99, 49 had been exposed to the seafood and animal market believed to be at the centre of the outbreak
• Seventeen patients developed acute respiratory distress syndrome and 11 of them died of multiple organ failure; 31 of the 99 had been released from hospital by 25 January

So, in theory, 20% of people infected at the market died. And people who caught it from other people typically didn’t die. Beyond China we have found the only human-human transmission today, between a married couple.

It seems to me that the virus becomes less transmissible the more it spreads. It weakens.

This is a blessing.